5th Study Conference on BALTEX

Kuressaare, Saaremaa, Estonia
4-8 June 2007

(updated 11 June 2007)





Travel & Accommodation


Final Conference Programme

Sunday 3 June: 14:00-18:00 Registration

Monday 4 June
8:00 Registration
10:00 Opening Ceremony

Jüri Elken, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia, Member of the BALTEX SSG

Andres Tarand, European Parliament, Estonia

Jaanus Tamkivi, Estonian Ministry of the Environment, Tallinn, Estonia

Urve Tiidus, Mayor of Kuressaare, Saaremaa, Estonia

Joakim Langner, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SMHI, Sweden, Chair of the BALTEX SSG

Opening Session
Chair: Sirje Keevallik

The World Climate Research Programme – Achievements and Future
Vladimir Ryabinin (solicited)


GEWEX Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observation Project
John Roads (solicited)


Common research interests for LOICZ and BALTEX in the Baltic Sea area
Jozef M. Pacyna (solicited)

12:30 Lunch
Session 1: Improving Knowledge on Water and Energy Cycles
Chair: Hans-Jörg Isemer

Performance of an ensemble of RCMs over the BALTEX area from the Inter-Continental Transferability Study (ICTS)
Burkhardt Rockel, B. Geyer, R. W. Arritt, J. McGregor, W. J. Gutowski Jr., C. Jones, I. Meinke, D. Paquin, J. Roads, E.Takle, U. Willén


BALTEX contribution to GEWEX: Independent estimates of the water and energy budgets in the Baltic Sea region?
Daniela Jacob


Investigation of the water and energy budgets in the BALTEX area, as simulated in a regional climate model
Petter Lind, E. Kjellström


The contribution of the BALTEX in-situ reference sites to CEOP
Frank Beyrich. W. Adam, F. Bosveld, J. Poutiainen, T. Savunen

15:20 Comparison of air-sea fluxes in the uncoupled and coupled BALTIMOS system
Philip Lorenz, D. Jacob, A. Lehmann

Advances in weather radar based quantitative precipitation measurements for the purposes of climate research
Jarmo Koistinen, T. Kuitunen, D. Michelson

16:00 Break
Session 1 continued
Chair: Andreas Lehmann

Estimating climate trends using GPS
Tobias Nilsson, J. Johansson, M. Lidberg, G. Elgered


Observations and modelling of a cold-air outbreak over the Gulf of Finland
Lorenzo Claveri, T.  Vihma, H.  Savijärvi, B. Tammelin


Recent advances in the physical oceanography of the Gulf of Finland
Kai Myrberg, T. Soomere, M. Leppäranta, A. Nekrasov


Modeling the pathways and ages of inflowing salt- and freshwater in the Baltic Sea
Markus H. E. Meier


Testing a new swell-dependent drag coefficient in a process oriented ocean model
Björn Carlsson, A.  Rutgersson, A.-S.  Smedman

18:10 End of Monday’s Sessions
20:00 Icebreaker


Tuesday 5 June
Session 2a: Past climate variability and change
Chair: Anders Omstedt

How do we know that human influence is changing the climate in the Baltic Sea region?
Hans von Storch, J. Bhend  (solicited)


Towards the detection of a human induced climate change in northern Europe
Jonas Bhend, H. von Storch


Precipitation pattern in the Baltic Sea drainage basin and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric circulation
Jaak Jaagus


Long-term temperature, salinity, and sea level records from the Baltic Sea entrance
Kristine Madsen, N. Højerslev


Air mass seasonality and winter season cold air masses in Latvia
Anita Draveniece

10:20 Break
Session 2a continued
Chair: Daniela Jacob

Modelling the Baltic Sea ocean climate on centennial time scale; temperature and sea ice
Daniel Hansson, A. Omstedt


Trends of temperature and salinity of the Baltic Sea for the period 1969-2005 and long-term variability of winter water mass formation
Andreas Lehmann, H.-H. Hinrichsen, S. Febiri, G. Tschersich


Stagnation periods and deepwater inflow dynamics: An analysis of measurements in the Baltic Sea during the 20th century
Erik Gustafsson, A. Omstedt


Trends, long-term variations and extremes of the northern Baltic Proper wave fields
Tarmo Soomere


Current and expected changes in river ice regimes within the Russian part of Baltic drainage basin
Valery Vuglinsky

12:40 Lunch
14:00 Poster Discussion I
15:30 End of Tuesday’s Sessions
16:30 Sightseeing Tour


Wednesday 6 June
Session 2a: Past climate variability and change continued
Chair: Hans von Storch

Simulation of runoff in the Baltic Sea drainage basin during the past millennium
Jonas Olsson, L. P. Graham, J. Rosbjerg, S.-S. Hellström, E. Kjellström, R. Berndtsson


Climate simulations of the past millennium with the global model ECHO-G: Results for the Baltex area
Eduardo Zorita, S. Wagner, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, H. von Storch


Towards Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region - The ASTRA Project
Walter Leal,  F. Mannke (solicited)

Session 2b: Climate projections

The ENSEMBLES and the BALTEX projects
Markku Rummukainen, C. Hewitt, D. Jacob  (solicited)



Session 2b: Climate projections continued
Chair: Dan Rosbjerg

Changes in the water and energy budgets in the BALTEX area in future warmer climates as simulated in a regional climate model
Erik Kjellström, P. Lind


Transient simulations of future runoff to the Baltic Sea for the 21st century
L. Phil Graham


Precipitation Extremes under Climate Change in the Baltic Area as Simulated with a Regional Climate Model
Ole Bøssing-Christensen


Decadal variability of the hydrological cycle in the Baltic Sea region
Daniela Jacob, P. Lorenz


Prolonged periods with little rain during summer in Finland - Observations and future projections
Kirsti Jylhä, T. Kilpeläinen, A. Venäläinen, S. Saku, H. Tuomenvirta, K. Ruosteenoja, A. Vajda


Future wave climate of the Baltic Sea - projections with winds from the regional climate model RCA3 of the Rossby Centre
Barry Broman

12:40 Lunch
Session 2c: Impact of Climate Change
Chair: Fritz Köster

Climate change impact on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: The HELCOM view on future cooperation with BALTEX
Juha-Markku Leppänen, Hermanni Backer (solicited)


Climate change and land ecosystems of the Baltic Sea basin – knowledge gaps and research priorities
Benjamin Smith  (solicited)


RCM-downscaled climate indices requested by the Swedish Government Climate and Vulnerability Inquiry Committee: An overview and some remarks
Lars Bärring


Impact of climate change on the Baltic Sea ecosystem
Kari Eilola, H. E. M. Meier

15:40 Break
Session 2c continued
Chair: Benjamin Smith

Methods for assessing the impact of climate change on nutrient flows from catchments
Heikki Kaipainen, Ä. Bilaletdin, T. Frisk, A. Paananen


Perpetrator, victim and free-rider – the ambivalent role of tourism and recreation for the climate change
Ralf Scheibe

Session 3a: Coastal Zone and Water Management

Adaptation to climate change in water management – Baltic Sea Basin
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz (solicited)


The application of the conceptual model metq2006 for the river Iecava basin as case study in Latvia
Ansis Ziverts, A.Bakute, E. Apsite


Water levels and flow in the river systems of Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren
Sara-Sofia Hellström, S. Bergström, J. Andréasson

18:00 End of Wednesday’s Sessions
18:15 Open Workshop on BALTEX Data Management:
"How to get Access to BALTEX Data Bases"
20:00 End of Workshop


Thursday 7 June
Session 3a: Coastal Zone and Water Management continued
Chair: Josef Pacyna

Performance of the operational HIROMB model in relation to the oceanographic extreme events and seasonal fluxes in the Gulfs of Finland and Riga
Jüri Elken, T. Kõuts, U. Lips, U. Raudseoo, P. Lagemaa, T. Liblik


GIS modelling of water transfer in system of river catchment – lagoon – sea (Pregel River – Vistula Lagoon - Gdansk Gulf)
Natalia Goncharova, D. Domnin, A. Korzh, E. Gurova

Session 3b: The COASTMAN Project

COASTMAN – Coastal Zone Management in the Baltic Sea region
Jan Fidler, R. Wennersten, N.  Brandt, Å. Larsson  (solicited)


Klaipeda Sea Deepwater Port Development Issue
Olga Belous, S. Gulbinskas, R. Mileriene


Coastal zone management in Haapsalu Bay area, Estonia
Arvo Iital, K. Vilta, E. Loigu, K. Roosalu


The Conflict in the Kadetrinne: The need for Integrative Approaches to Sustainable Coastal Zone Management in the Baltic Sea
Walter Leal, A. Holda, D. Krahn



Session 4: Linking BALTEX Science to Air and Water Quality and Impacts on Ecosystems
Chair: Ilppo Vuorinen

Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea Basin – Present situation, trends, variability and impact of climate change
Joakim Langner  (solicited)


Developing an integrated view on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: The EUR-OCEANS Baltic System Study
Fritz Köster, D. Turner, A. Omstedt, C. Möllmann, H. Gislason, R. Autio, A. Olsson and R. Diekmann  (solicited)


Climate Change Impacts on the Ecosystems of the North Sea and Relevance to the Baltic: Evidence for Past Variability and Future Prognosis
P.C. Reid  (solicited)

12:40 Lunch

Poster Discussion II



Session 4 continued
Chair: Joakim Langner

Long-range transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons over Europe and their deposition into the Baltic Sea
Armin Aulinger, V. Matthias, M. Quante


Impact of anthropogenic airborne nutrients to the bog ecosystem in the Eastern Baltic Sea basin
Marko Kaasik, T. Ploompuu, E. Meier, Ü. Sõukand, H. Kaasik, T. Alliksaar, J. Ivask, R. Ots


The drift and dispersion of an oil spill in the Baltic Sea ice season: Observation of the Runner 4 case
Keguang Wang, M. Leppäranta, M. Gästgifvars, J.Vainio


High Resolution Atmosphere-Sea Hydro-Ecological modelling in the coastal zone
Rein Tamsalu, V. Zalesny, R. Rõõm, R. Aps

17:20 End of Thursday’s Sessions
19:30 Conference Dinner


Friday 8 June
Session 4: Linking BALTEX Science to Air and Water Quality and Impacts on Ecosystems continued
Chair: Timo Vihma

The Baltic Sea Carbon Cycle: A challenge for research within BALTEX
Bernd Schneider (solicited)


Simulations of Atmospheric CO2 Concentration over Europe
Ute Karstens


Upscaling of CO2 fluxes
Sven-Erik Gryning, H. Soegaard, E. Batchvarova


A Comparison between Webb corrected Humidity and CO2 Spectra in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer
Erik Sahlée, A.-S. Smedman, A. Rutgersson

10:00 Break
Session 4 continued
Chair: Bernd Schneider

The annual cycle of carbon-dioxide and parameters influencing the air-sea carbon exchange in the Baltic Proper
Anna Rutgersson, A.-S. Smedman, E. Sahlée, M. Norman, B. Schneider


Model for the air-sea gas exchange through film-covered water
Christoph Zülicke


Set up of a thermodynamic model of snow, snow ice and sea ice evolution to be coupled with a biogeochemical flux model
Letizia Tedesco, M. Vichi, J. Haapala, T. Stipa


Alkalinity in the Baltic Sea during 20th century
Sofia Hjalmarsson, L. Anderson, L. Mintrop, K. Wesslander, A. Omstedt, M. Pertillä


Modelling the carbon cycle in the Baltic Sea surface water
Anders Omstedt, K. Wesslander

12:10 Closing of the Conference
12:30 End of the Conference


Go to:

Final Conference Programme

Instructions for Oral and Poster Presentations

Social Events
Monday, 4 June:
20:00 Ice Breaker at Captains Pub of Hotel Johan, Kuressaare
(drinks not included in Conference fee)
Tuesday, 5 June:
16:30 Sightseeing trip around Saaremaa (€ 25,00)
Thursday, 7 June:
19:00 Conference Dinner at Bishops Castle of Kuressaare
(included in Conference Fee)

Back to BALTEX