Working Group on Scenario Simulations
Terms of References of the Baltic Earth Working Group on Scenario Simulations for the Baltic Sea
The Working Group aims to publish a peer-reviewed paper in an international journal assessing existing scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea coupled physical-biogeochemical-carbonate system. The broader scientific community also of other marginal seas will be addressed. The assessment will include material that is available now and analyze the data as one large ensemble of scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The paper will address different sources of uncertainties, how to deal with them and how to take advantage of the ensemble approach and the variety among the individual members.
Also, a discussion on simulated key processes like e.g. hypoxia and the complexity of the problem will be included. The publication will advertise future coordinated scenario simulations to generate ensembles of comparable members and argue that climate change needs to be taken into account in revised BSAP calculations.
Participants and members of the Working Group: Vladimir Ryabchenko, Oleg Savchuk, Bo Gustafsson, Erik Gustafsson, Rene Friedland, Thomas Neumann, Anders Omstedt, Helen Andersson, Christian Dieterich, Elin Almroth-Rosell, Kari Eilola, Matthias Gröger, Irene Wåhlström, Ivan Kuznetsov, Semjon Schimanke, Ye Liu, Markus Meier (chair).
Duration: 2013-2015
WG Meeting of 6 March 2014 in Norrköping
