BALTEX

The Baltic Sea Experiment

To evaluate in increasing detail regional models used for climate and environmental studies, and to develop strategies for climate and environmental impact assessments.
To obtain better and more comprehensive observations from the entire Baltic Sea basin, including new satellite data, in particular to cope with regional resolution requirements.
To develop further the numerical regional models for the atmosphere, the land surface including rivers and lakes, and the Baltic Sea including sea ice.
• To lower the uncertainty when closing the energy and water budgets from measurements.

While BALTEX research has met to a large extent BALTEX Phase I objectives, gaps still exist and further research is needed for a more comprehensive fulfilment of the original BALTEX aims. Future BALTEX research related to this objective will therefore mainly contribute to further improving the physical understanding of processes, related modelling capabilities, and the quantitative estimation of important water and energy cycle parameters. Major goals include the evaluation of regional models with increasing and unprecedented detail with the particular perspective to support climate and environmental studies and to develop strategies for climate and environmental impact assessments. BALTEX will continue to establish and better explore more comprehensive observations from the entire Baltic Sea basin, including new satellite data. The further development of modules of coupled regional models for the atmosphere, the land surface including rivers and lakes, and the Baltic Sea including sea ice will be pursued. While some basin-wide estimates of atmospheric water transport divergence derived from re-analysis data sets, agree coincidentally within 10 to 20 % with basin-wide runoff estimates, individual components of the water and energy cycle show sometimes drastic mismatch and even unphysical direction of fluxes. A major future goal therefore remains to establish more reliable estimates of budgets and fluxes, i.e. to close the energy and water budgets at lower uncertainty.

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2. Analysis of climate variability and change since 1800, and provision of regional climate projections over the Baltic Sea basin for the 21st century

Goals are

To contribute to detecting regional climate change
To understand the physical mechanisms behind past climate variability and change, whether of natural or anthropogenic origin, in the BALTEX region; and to contribute to attribution studies
To study the balance between large-scale control and locally/regionally generated forcing of the regional climate system
• To develop projections of future climate variability and change, by means of sensitivity analyses and model studies

Extended observations of climate parameters are available in the region, which should be exploited in concert with model studies. As for most regions, there are specific regional challenges of global climate change for the Baltic Sea basin. The combined effects of climate change and socio-economic changes are largely unknown at present. BALTEX Phase II will contribute to the detection of regional climate change in the Baltic Sea basin, and to a better understanding of the physical mechanisms that are behind climate variability and change. One aim is to discern between natural and anthropogenic causes and thus to contribute to attribution studies. Another is to study the contributions of large-scale control and locally/regionally generated forcing on the Baltic Sea basin climate. A further major aim for BALTEX Phase II is to develop projections of future climate variability and change by means of sensitivity analyses and model studies.

Charting past climate variability and change, and providing regional climate projections for the future over the Baltic Sea basin will become a major research component in BALTEX Phase II.

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3. Provision of improved tools for water management, with an emphasis on more accurate forecasts of extreme events and long-term changes

Goals are

To develop further and apply coupled atmospheric-hydrological models for improved assessment of the availability of water resources in today’s and future climate
To develop, validate, and apply different modelling systems in selected river basins to assess the impact of climate variability and change on the hydrological regime including the occurrence and severity of extreme events
To assess future risk of water shortage and extreme events by explicitly taking account of the societal use of groundwater and surface water resources, as well as man-made changes of land use
• To develop further flood forecasting models

In the context of BALTEX Phase II research the envisaged improvement of tools for water management aims particularly at assessing how both present and future climate variability impacts on the water resources in the Baltic Sea basin, and how to quantify and reduce the associated risks caused by climate extremes. This objective is therefore closely related to the former one, however, with a specific water-related focus and tailored for a dedicated user and stakeholder community with its specific requirements. BALTEX Phase II goals include the further development and application of coupled atmospheric-hydrological models to be used for improved assessment of the availability of water resources in today’s and future climate. Different modelling systems shall be applied in selected river basins to assess the impact of climate variability and change on the hydrological regime including the occurrence and severity of extreme events. BALTEX will consider socio-economic drivers by explicitly taking account of the societal use of groundwater and surface water resources, as well as man-made changes of land use, in studies of the future risk of water shortage and impacts of extreme events. Another goal is to develop further flood forecasting models.

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4. Gradual extension of BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality studies

Goals are

To foster the coupling of climate and biogeochemical models and enhance the modelling capability for dispersion processes of nutrients and pollutants by implementing these into regional coupled atmosphere-land-ocean models including sea ice, rivers and lakes.
To promote the integration of the carbon cycle into biogeochemical models and to initiate first steps towards including these into the BALTEX modelling platforms
• To continue establishing and exploring more comprehensive observations into data sets for development and evaluation of modules and models, and to stimulate field experiments to study exchange processes of pollutants, nutrients, and carbon over sea and land including ice and snow.

With this objective BALTEX will explore and establish links between climate and environmental processes and research. The major aim is to gradually integrate environmental modelling into physical modelling concepts obtained in BALTEX Phase I. Whenever necessary - if data and knowledge are missing - BALTEX will define and execute appropriate observation concepts as suggested in the Science Plan for BALTEX Phase II. A particular goal is to enhance the capability to model pollution dispersion by using recent progress in dynamical modelling, particularly through coupled regional models, within the BALTEX community. It is envisaged to start the inclusion of nutrient and carbon cycles into the existing BALTEX modelling platforms. Important aspects of this research area are the exploitation of observational data, but BALTEX will also engage in field experiments that address missing or insufficiently known processes relevant for environmental issues. BALTEX aims at using recent developments in remote sensing of water and environmental parameters and novel flux measuring techniques of environmental components.

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5. Strengthened interaction with decision-makers, with emphasis on global change impact assessments

Goals are

• Identification of Information Requirements of Decision Makers
• Elaboration of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in the BALTEX Region
• Identification of Fundable Research Activities
• Organisation of Dedicated Workshops with Stakeholder Participation

BALTEX Phase II research will take advantage of stakeholder involvement in a more pronounced way compared to Phase I. Important in this context is the involvement governmental organisations such as national hydro-meteorological services, but interaction with other stakeholders such as policy decision makers, international organisations (for example the European Environment Agency, EEA), companies and small enterprises in various sectors will also be strengthened and established. The selection of topics is driven by societal needs and is therefore a dynamical process. BALTEX envisages to install a dedicated working group which will promote a lively and fruitful interaction between scientists and stakeholders.

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6. Education and outreach at the international level

Goals are

• Organisation of BALTEX-related Summer Schools as well as the Integration of BALTEX relevant Topics into National and International Study Programmes including Master and Ph.D. Theses
• Preparation of relevant Study Material for Secondary Schools
• BALTEX-related Evening Lectures
• Establishment of a Web Site dedicated to the General Public

The rationale for BALTEX Phase II clearly demonstrates the relevance of the programme for various sectors of the society. BALTEX will maintain a broad programme component with the overall objective to strengthen the education and outreach of BALTEX at all relevant levels, ranging from local to international and global. This component of the programme shall promote and facilitate the dissemination, transfer, exploitation, assessment and broad take-up of past and future programme results. The character of the individual measures include in particular i) the creation of awareness, ii) dissemination of results of the programme, and, iii) dedicated education and training measures. The target groups to be addressed in society can be largely divided into 1) stakeholders and users, 2) scientists, 3) students, and 4) the general public.

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