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Publications

• AMBIO Special Issue: ECOSUPPORT – Different Ecosystem Drivers Under Future Climate Scenarios in the Baltic Sea
  AMBIO No. 41, Number 6 / September 2012; online here...
  
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  Guest Editorial Marcus Reckermann Pages 527-528 Download PDF (197KB)
  ECOSUPPORT: A Pilot Study on Decision Support for Baltic Sea Environmental Management H. E. Markus Meier, Helén C. Andersson Pages 529-533 Download PDF (608KB)
  Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850–2006 Bo G. Gustafsson, Frederik Schenk, Thorsten Blenckner, Kari Eilola… Pages 534-548 Download PDF (810KB)
  Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data Tuija Ruoho-Airola, Kari Eilola, Oleg P. Savchuk, Maija Parviainen… Pages 549-557 Download PDF (434KB)
  Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study H. E. Markus Meier, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Helén C. Andersson, Christian Dieterich… Pages 558-573 Download PDF (1123KB)
  Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate Thomas Neumann, Kari Eilola, Bo Gustafsson, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Ivan Kuznetsov… Pages 574-585 Download PDF (2941KB)
  Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate Kari Eilola, Elin Almroth Rosell, Christian Dieterich, Filippa Fransner… Pages 586-599 Download PDF (1949KB)
  Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan Berit Arheimer, Joel Dahné, Chantal Donnelly Pages 600-612 Download PDF (1072KB)
  Uncertainties in a Baltic Sea Food-Web Model Reveal Challenges for Future Projections Susa Niiranen, Thorsten Blenckner, Olle Hjerne, Maciej T. Tomczak Pages 613-625 Download PDF (1723KB)
  Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation Brian R. MacKenzie, H. E. Markus Meier, Martin Lindegren, Stefan Neuenfeldt… Pages 626-636 Download PDF (588KB)
  How will Ocean Acidification Affect Baltic Sea Ecosystems? An Assessment of Plausible Impacts on Key Functional Groups Jonathan N. Havenhand Pages 637-644 Download PDF (801KB)
  Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Cross-Country Analysis of Institutional Stakeholder Perceptions Joanna Piwowarczyk, Anders Hansson, Mattias Hjerpe, Boris Chubarenko… Pages 645-655 Download PDF (414KB)
  
  
• Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe using analog-upscaling by Schenk, F., and E. Zorita, 2012: Clim. Past, 8, 1681-1703, 2012 www.clim-past.net/8/1681/2012/ doi:10.5194/cp-8-1681-2012. Link to the paper here...
  
  
• Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem—first results from multi-model ensemble simulations by Markus Meier et al. (the ECOSUPPORT team). Environ. Res. Lett. 7 034005 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034005
  
  
• Simulated variations of the Baltic Sea halocline during 1961-2007 by Germo Väli, Markus Meier and Jüri Elken. Report Oceanography No. 44 SMHI, Norköping, Sweden, 37 pp. Link here...
  
  
• Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961–2099 by H. E. M. Meier, R. Hordoir, H. C. Andersson, C. Dieterich, K. Eilola, B. G. Gustafsson, A. Höglund und S. Schimanke. Climate Dynamics 2012, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1339-7. Link to the paper here...
  Climate and Baltic Sea Nutrients This paper is highlighted in Nature Climate Change here...
  
  
• Uncertainty assessment of projected ecological quality indicators in future climate by Meier, H. E. M., K. Eilola, B. G. Gustafsson, I. Kuznetsov, T. Neumann, and O. P. Savchuk, 2012b: Rapport Oceanografi No.112, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden. Link to the paper here...
  
  
• BONUS 125 ECOSUPPORT Final Report 2009 - 2011. Download here...
  
  
• Load scenarios for Ecosupport by Bo G. Gustafsson, Oleg P. Savchuk and H. E. Markus Meier. Technical Report No. 4, Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Sweden. November 2011.
  Link to the paper here...
  
  
• Hypoxia in future climates: A model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea
  by H. E. M. Meier, H. C. Andersson, K. Eilola, B. G. Gustafsson, I. Kuznetsov, B. Müller-Karulis, T. Neumann, and O. P. Savchuk
  GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L24608, doi:10.1029/2011GL049929, 2011
  Link to the paper here...
  
  
• Climate-related changes in marine ecosystems simulated with a 3-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea
  by H.E.Markus Meier, Kari Eilola and Elin Almroth. Climate Research 48:31-55 (2011) - doi:10.3354/cr00968
  Link to the paper here...
  
  
• Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics by H.E.M Meier et al., 2011. Oceanologia, 53, pp 193-227.
  Link to the paper here...
  
  
• Transient scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea Region during the 21^st century
  by H.E.M. Meier, H. Andersson, C. Dieterich, K. Eilola, B. Gustafsson, A. Höglund, R. Hordoir and S. Schimanke. This is SMHI publication OCEANOGRAFI Nr. 108, 2011.
  Note: The file contains many high resolution figures. For an overview of the entire document, a low resolution pdf is available.
  For high resolution, the file is split up to a text and 6 figure files.
  Low resolution: Entire report (5.8MB)
  High resolution: Text and Fig.1-4 (1.2MB)
  High resolution: Fig.5-19 (46.7MB)
  High resolution: Fig.20-33 (37.2MB)
  High resolution: Fig.34-45 (68.1MB)
  High resolution: Fig.46-53 (47MB)
  High resolution: Fig.54-61 (47MB)
  High resolution: Fig.62-69 (49.6MB)
  
  
• Could Seals Prevent Cod Recovery in the Baltic Sea? by Brian R. MacKenzie, Margit Eero and Henn Ojaveer, 2011.
  Download here...
  The data set associated to this paper is available here...
  
  
• Effect of climate change on the thermal stratification of the baltic sea: a sensitivity experiment by R. Hordoir and H. E. M. Meier
  Download here...
  
  
• ECOSUPPORT Annual Report Y2: 100101-101231
  Download here...
  
  
• Report by K.V. Karmanov, B. V. Chubarenko, D. Domnin and A. Hansson:
  Attitude to climate changes in everyday management practice at the level of Kaliningrad region municipalities
  
  
• Visualization of hydrological, physical and biogeochemical modelling of the Baltic Se using a GeoDome.
  H. Andersson, P. Wallman and C. Donnelly. Oceanography No. 105, 2010
  
  
• Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference (school) on Dynamics of the coastal zone of non-tidal seas, Baltiysk (Kalingrad Oblast, Russia) 26-30 June 2010. Ed. B. Chubarenko. Kalingrad: Terra Baltica, 2010. 410 pp.
  Info: chuboris@mail.ru
  
  
• Eilola, K., 2009: On the dynamics of organic nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus, in the Baltic Sea. Rapport Oceanografi No.99, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, 16 pp.
  
  
• Eilola, K., B. G. Gustafson, R. Hordoir, A. Höglund, I. Kuznetsov, H. E. M. Meier, T. Neumann, O. P. Savchuk, 2010, Quality assessment of state-of-the-art coupled physical-biogeochemical models in hind cast simulations 1970-2005, Rapport Oceanografi No.101, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.
  
  
• ECOSUPPORT Consortium 2010: ECOSUPPORT Annual report Y1 090101-091231
  
  
• ECOSUPPORT Consortium, Selected highlights from the ECOSUPPORT project, Joint Baltic Sea Research Programme Annual Conference 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania, 19-21 January, 2010.

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Presentations and Posters

• Piwowarczyk J.: Linking science and policy: role of data in decision making. Presented at: "Data management in research", August 2012, Sopot, Poland
  
  
• Piwowarczyk J.: Tourism, recreation and protection of the environment in the Puck Bay (Southern Baltic): Management in the face of climate change. Presented at: "Ecosystem Services in Transdisciplinary Approach" EcoServ 2012, September 2012, Poznan, Poland.
  
  
• Presentations of ECOSUPPORT results within the scientific presentations at the Meeting of Scientific Council of Physiscal Devision of Institute of Oceanology of Russian Academy of Sciences, 12.01.2012, Moscow and at Kick-off Meeting of the LAGOONS Consortium meeting, 24-26 April 2012, Gdansk. (Boris Chubarenko)
  
  
• Piwowarczyk J., Węsławski J.M., „Conceptualization of Climate Change and Its Implications for Coastal Management in the Southern Baltic”, Global Summit on Coastal Seas (EMECS 9); Baltimore, USA, sierpień-wrzesień 2011;
  
  
• Dereniowska M., Kronenberg J., Piwowarczyk J., „Competing Rationalities in Marine Ecosystem Services Management: Implications for the Polish EEZ”, Global Summit on Coastal Seas (EMECS 9); Baltimore, USA, sierpień-wrzesień 2011;
  
  
• Piwowarczyk J., Kronenberg J., Dereniowska M., “Marine ecosystem services in urban areas: do the strategic documents of Polish coastal municipalities reflect their value?”, Ecosystem services in urban areas seminar 2011, Synthesizing different perspectives on the value of urban ecosystem services; lipiec 2011;
  
  
• Piwowarczyk J., Węsławski J.M., Wiktor J., “Ecosystem services in marine spatial planning in the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone: obstacles for their inclusion in the legal and institutional frameworks”, 4th ESP International Conference 2011 Ecosystem Services: integrating Science and Practice; Wageningen, Holandia, październik 2011;
  
  
• Węsławski J.M., “What science may and may not have to offer for the marine management”, ECOSUPPORT and RECOCA Stakeholders Conference: An outlook to the future Baltic Sea: how can we reach the targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan; Stockholm, Szwecja, grudzień 2011;
  
  
• Piwowarczyk J., Węsławski J.M., Kotwicki J., “Consequences of climate change for the Southern Baltic (Polish EEZ)”, 2nd Annual Forum on the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, Gdańsk, październik 2011;
  
  
• A new ECOSUPPORT consortium poster summarizes some of the highlights during the 3^rd project year. The poster was shown e.g. at the Baltic Sea Science Congress, St Petersburg, 22-26 August 2011, and at the ICES Annual Science Conference, Gdansk, 19-23 September, 2011. Download here...
  
  
• Another poster was presented at the Baltic Sea Science Congress in St Petersburg, 22-26 August 2011 and showed the ECOSUPPORT work on scientific communication using a GeoDome (H.C Andersson et al. 2011: Visualization of hydrological and, physical and biogeochemical modeling of the Baltic Sea using a GeoDome). Download here...
  
  
• The ECOSUPPORT project was also represented with a presentation at the ICES annual science conference in Gdansk: H.E.M Meier et al., 2011: Projected Baltic Sea ecosystemchanges in future climates, contribution to theme session R, No. 18:. An extended abstract can be found here.
  
  
• ABIORAS has prepared 3 posters presenting their work for ECOSUPPORT: Vistula Lagoon. The posters can be viewed here:
  "Discussion on Vistula Lagoon municipalities development with regard to climate changes", A. Domnina et al.
  "Uncertainty estimates: Pregolya river runoff response to climate" by D.A. Domnin and B. Chubarenko
  "Modelling te response of thermo-hydrodynamic conditions on the Vistula Lagoon on the scenario of climate change in the Baltic Sea region" by B. Chubarenko et al.
  
  
• ECOSUPPORT poster presented at the Millennium Workshop in Hamburg, March 2011 by Semjon Schimanke.
  Title: Investigations of hypoxic areas in the Baltic Sea during the MCA and LIA using RCA3 forced with ECHO-G.
  Authors: S. Schimanke, G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström and H.E.M. Meier. Download here...
  
  
• Presentations from the workshop “Uncertainties of scenario simulations”, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, 14 October 2010
• Participant list
• Jouni Räisänen: Uncertainties in projections of climate change
• Samu Mäntyniemi: How to handle uncertainty in future projections?
• Bo Gustafsson: Major uncertainties in scenarios of Baltic Sea eutrophication – response to changes in the drainage basin
• Robert Aps: Baltic Sea fishery management: Bayesian uncertainty communication
• Grigory Nikulin: Identification of uncertainties in regional climate projections over the Baltic region
• Erik Kjellström: Exploring the concept of assigning relative weights to regional climate models Experiences from the ENSEMBLES project
• Fredrik Wetterhall: Uncertainty analysis of the modelling chain from GCM to flood inundation
• H. E. Markus Meier: Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics
• Chantal Donnelly: Uncertainties in Hydrological Predictions for the Baltic Sea: In Today’s and a Future Climate
• V. Ryabchenko: Scenario simulations of the state of Baltic Sea ecosystem in a future climate using the St.Petersburg Baltic Eutrophication Model
• Björn Carlsson: Analysis of dynamically downscaled climate simulations over the Baltic Sea drainage basin
• Brian R. MacKenzie: Comparative retrospective assessment of biogeochemical model outputs for fish and foodweb modelling in the Baltic Sea
  
  
• Presentations from the ECOSUPPORT/BONUS/AMBER Climate Modelling School, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, 13 October 2010
• Participant list
• Eduardo Zorita: Global Climate Models
• Sten Bergström: Impacts of climate change on sea level rise and spatial planning in metropolitan areas
• Erik Kjellström: Regional Climate Models
• Ralf Döscher: Arctic Climate Modelling
• Markus Meier: Baltic Sea Climate Modelling

• A new joint ECOSUPPORT consortium poster (ECOSUPPORT_BALTEX.pdf): ECOSUPPORT: Project approach and selected results. The poster was presented both at the 6th Study Conference on BALTEX on Wolin, Poland, 14-18 June 2010, and at EUTRO 2010, Nyborg, Denmark, 15-18 June 2010.

• Meier, M., Andersson, H., Eilola, K., Hordoir, R., Höglund, A: New scenario simulations of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to support decision making. Presentation at the EUTRO 2010 conference Nyborg, Denmark, 15-18 June 2010. (HAndersson_EUTRO2010.pdf):

• Ecosupport Presentations from the BONUS Annual Conference 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania, 19-21 January, 2010
  
  H.E.M. Meier and ECOSUPPORT co-workers: First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099.
  
  K. Eilola, E. Almroth, B.G. Gustafsson et al.: Uncertainty assessment of state-of-the-art coupled physical-biogeochemical models for the Baltic Sea.
  
  J. Dahné, C. Donnelly, J. Strömqvist et al.: Evaluating the combined effects of nutrient load reduction and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea catchment.
  
  Poster: The ECOSUPPORT consortium: Selected highlights from the ECOSUPPORT project.
  

• Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making
  Presentation by Brian MacKenzie at the ICES/HELCOM Working Group Meeting on Integrated Assessments of the Baltic Sea (WGIAB) Rostock, Germany
  March 16-20, 2009

• Presentations from the ECOSUPPORT Workshop: The marine ecosystem in changing climate – On the added value of coupled climate-environmental modeling for the Baltic Sea, 16 October 2009, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden:

• Markus Meier: Impact of changing climate on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea – An introduction
• Bo Gustafsson: First results from coupled physical-biogeochemical modelling within the BONUS+ project ECOSUPPORT
• Ivan Kuznetsov: Simulation of the carbon cycle in the Baltic Sea
• Anna Rudgersson: Building predictive capability regarding the Baltic Sea organic/inorganic carbon and oxygen system
• Zhenwen Wan: Modeling Study on the seasonality of Ecosystem Dynamics in the Baltic Sea
• Agneta Andersson: Effect of increasing load of allochtonous organic carbon and inorganic nutrients on the efficiency of a marine pelagic food web
• Jan Marcin Weslawski: Biological valorization of the Southern Baltic Sea
• Per Jonsson: Dispersal of marine organisms in the Baltic Sea estimated from Lagrangian trajectories driven by ocean circulation models
• Inari Helle: IBAM - Integrated Bayesian risk analysis of ecosystem management in the Gulf of Finland
• Anna Gadmark: Biological Ensemble Modelling to improve fisheries science and management